博傻理論

博傻理論（粵讀：bok3 so4 lei5 leon6；英文：greater fool theory）係有關「經濟泡沫點解會形成」嘅一個諗法。

概論[編輯]

根據博傻理論，有好多投資者都係跟以下呢條簡單法則行事^[1]^[2]：

「

買一件資產係個價唔合理咁高嘅（做傻仔），再搵另外一個投機買家（搵個更大嘅傻仔；greater fool）以更高嘅價賣咗件資產佢。

」

如果跟呢條法則行動嘅投資者數量有返咁上下多，件資產嘅價就會開始升，而且情況仲會因為羊群效應而加劇－喺一場噉嘅博傻泡沫當中，梗會有啲早期嘅參與者搵到大錢，而佢哋嘅故事傳咗出去，就會進一步吸引更多嘅人加入「做傻仔」。當件資產個價升到去某點，啲「最大嘅傻仔」搵唔到「更大嘅傻仔」去買件資產，件資產嘅價就會急跌－泡爆^[3]。

「

粵文翻譯：對件資產嘅需求，以及佢個價，會被推高並唔係因為投資者相信件資產嘅真實價值升咗，而係源於啲人相信無論佢哋使咗幾多錢買件資產，件資產遲吓都可以用更高嘅價賣畀第個人。

」

批評[編輯]

有人指出，呢個理論就噉聽落好似好合理，但到咗 2020 年代初，學界都仲未搵到充足嘅實證證據撐佢。

睇埋[編輯]

攷[編輯]

↑ Zou, X. (2018). Can the greater fool theory explain bubbles? Evidence from China (No. 2018-04). Working Paper.
↑ The Greater Fool Theory: What Is It?. Hartford Funds.
↑ "Oxford Business Review - The Greater Fool Theory". Oxford Business Review. 30 December 2020. Retrieved 7 November 2021，原版英文："The demand of the asset, and thus its price, is not driven up by the investors' belief that the intrinsic value of that asset has increased, but rather, due to the belief that no matter the price paid for the asset, it can be sold to someone else at a later point in time for a higher price."

[1] Zou, X. (2018). Can the greater fool theory explain bubbles? Evidence from China (No. 2018-04). Working Paper.

[2] The Greater Fool Theory: What Is It?. Hartford Funds.

[oxbizGrFo-3] "Oxford Business Review - The Greater Fool Theory". Oxford Business Review. 30 December 2020. Retrieved 7 November 2021，原版英文："The demand of the asset, and thus its price, is not driven up by the investors' belief that the intrinsic value of that asset has increased, but rather, due to the belief that no matter the price paid for the asset, it can be sold to someone else at a later point in time for a higher price."

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